How to Absolutely Nail Your Tasmanian Weather Window This Summer

Everyone tells you to check the weather, but not many people tell you how. In the mountains, it’s a skill that goes beyond looking for a little sun emoji and a low percent chance of rain. Roux’s here to get you up to speed.

Last summer I rolled into Hobart, fresh off the boat, starry eyed at the promise of wilderness, remote coastlines, and mountains. The prospect of alpine adventures was tantalising, and I couldn’t wait to start exploring. But for me, as a ‘mainlander’, figuring out how to safely navigate Tasmania’s notoriously fickle weather was a challenge.

The horror stories and unsolicited advice shared online and around camp at night did a very good job of instilling fear, but came with little practical guidance on how to plan for this new and unfamiliar environment.

Now, countless forecasts and many conversations later, I feel far more confident in my ability to interpret the weather down here. So, if you’re heading south for an adventure this summer, this is what I’ve learnt about nailing weather windows, and how to give yourself the best shot at getting into the wilderness, while also knowing when not to.

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Keep reading if you want to nail bluebird days like these!

Firstly… What is a Weather Window?

Weather windows come in all shapes, sizes, and feelings of optimism. Generally speaking, they refer to a period when conditions are relatively favourable, stable, or predictable enough to safely complete your chosen outdoor objective.

Sometimes this means five consecutive days of sunshine, and other times it’s a morning of calm conditions that enables you to seek shelter before a storm.

No one window fits all, so it’s up to you, your experience, and the guidance of those before you to decide what weather window you require.

Admittedly, I don’t have many photos showcasing bad weather days… not ideal for an article about navigating Tassie’s weather, but perhaps a testament to my ability to pick a good weather window

Start With the Big Picture and Identify the Trend

In my experience, pressure systems are the brick and mortar that can make or break a weather window. They’re the big swirling blobs you see moving across the map behind the newsreader on the TV, and they’re my first port of call when I’m trying to work out what might be coming.

Broadly, there are two types: highs and lows.

Lows are generally the troublemakers, bringing less predictable conditions, while highs tend to bring more stable, settled weather. I look at the Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM’s) Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis and Forecast map for next 4 days to see what’s happening now and, importantly, how the pressure systems are expected to move.

I’m happy if I see a big high sitting over Tassie for a few days, as it usually suggests a more stable spell of weather. A low or front moving through can mean the opposite, and is a cue to have a closer look.

A large high pressure system can be seen to the left of Tasmania, identifiable by the concentric circles labeled with a H. The solid blue line marked with triangles either side of the high indicates that it is boxed in by cold fronts moving east. A low can be seen on the right, just scraping the top of New Zealand.
– Credit ‘Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis’, BOM

Next, Zoom In on Your Route

Once you have a sense of how the pressure systems are moving, you’ll have a rough gauge of whether you’re in for a beautiful or horrendous few days. From there, I head over to a more standard day-by-day forecasting platform, the kind that you’re most likely already familiar with.

Here I’m looking at the obvious things, like when it’s going to rain and how much. But it’s also important to start thinking about the secondary effects of the weather on your adventure. Consider things like rising rivers. Slippery, muddy or snow covered trails. You may even want to check tides and swell depending on where you’ll be exploring.

Mia navigates one of the many river crossings along the South Coast Track. The day before, heavy rain had swollen this river to the height of the rope. If in doubt, play it safe and wait out a flooded river. Just make sure your camp is high enough above the rising water!

On top of all this, I’m not just looking for good weather, but I’m looking for a forecast that isn’t changing significantly every time I check it. A forecast that keeps shifting means that the weather is less predictable, so start checking a week out and have a look daily until you leave.

Consider Elevation and Cloud Base

I use a free account with Mountain Forecast, for my localised forecasting. I like it because you can request forecasts for prominent summits as well as different elevations. This is particularly useful in Tassie, where the weather at a trailhead and the weather on the summit can be very different.

Mountain Forecast also shows cloud base, which can give you a good idea of whether you’re likely to get some stunning summit views or spend the day in the clouds. Make sure you also check the ‘chill’ section, which factors in wind to give you a better idea of how cold it’s actually going to feel.

Now that’s a weather window! A small front moving through on Tuesday will require the right gear, experience, and a bit of hunkering down to ride out the snow and a -16°C wind chill. But come Wednesday, there should be some stunning, snow-dusted views to enjoy! | Credit ‘Cradle Mountain Weather Forecast, Mountain Forecast

Of course, no forecast is guaranteed to be right, so I’m constantly cross-referencing with other sources, including the BOM, The Weather Chaser, and WillyWeather. Generally, I’m looking for a bit of consensus between them, while planning for the worst forecast.

Hiking in a low cloud base.

Check Again Before You Go (Or Better Yet, On the Go)

Lastly, I’ll check the forecast as close to the start of the adventure as I can. Simply put, this gives me the most up-to-date information before setting off. I’ll note down important details and how they line up with elevation, so I can make good decisions on the go.

Taking screenshots of Mountain Forecast is an easy way to capture a lot of information, but it’s also worth having everything written down in case something happens to your phone.

I also carry a Garmin Messenger, which lets me request an updated weather forecast via satellite while I’m out of reception. Every device has its own quirks, so make sure you understand how yours works and what information it can provide before you head off.

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A single bar of 4G on the summit enables Mia to get an updated forecast on the go

Stay Flexible

While it doesn’t help you predict your weather window, flexibility is the key to making the most of the weather you actually get.

If you’re planning a holiday around work, there’s a chance your weather window and travel window just won’t line up. I’ve met plenty of people who have persisted deep into the Arthurs Range despite a deteriorating forecast, only to spend four days sitting in a tent. Not an ideal way to spend your annual leave.

High above Coles Bay on Tasmania’s east coast, midway through a rather epic 11-hour mission. Proof that not all ‘epics’ happen in the South West!

The good news? Tasmania is a relatively small island, and if the weather is falling apart in the southwest, there’s a good chance somewhere else on the island is looking much more inviting. With so many trails and landscapes to choose from, it pays to have a backup plan or two. That’s one of the reasons the East Coast of Tasmania has become one of my favourite places to have an adventure.

Prepare for the Forecast to Be Wrong

Because it doesn’t always look this good!

Lastly, and by far, most importantly, be prepared for the forecast to be wrong. It’s the age-old advice I’ve been given by so many weathered old folk marching along the Tassie trails.

If you looked in my backpack, regardless of the trail or forecast, you’d almost always find a rain jacket, alongside a hat, sunscreen and a couple of dry bags to keep the water out of my sleeping bag and thermals. I’ll also always carry an emergency blanket and an SOS device.

I wrote this article with the intention of providing a glass-half-full, practical guide to understanding and making the most of the weather down here. There are plenty of great articles that delve deeper into the risks and rewards of the Tasmanian wilderness, what can happen when things go wrong, and how to prepare for it. I’d encourage anyone heading into the Tassie wilderness to have a read of a few of them, and, above all, to take both the weather and the wilderness seriously.

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On day seven we descended as our weather window, satisfyingly, closed behind us swallowing the ridgeline in clouds.