Alone Australia Season 3 Updated Winner Predictions

Tim’s done some solid pondering and reckons he’s dialled in what happens on the final episodes of Alone Australia. Do you agree?

I’m eating a piece of fish as I write this. I caught it (pulled leftovers from the fridge) and cooked it (fired up the oven) and I’m now enjoying some delicious protein (batter) to replenish my stores that have depleted since breakfast three hours ago.

So I feel immensely qualified to bring you these predictions about the final episodes of Alone Australia Season 3. According to a press release I just received this morning, there are four episodes left, not two like I thought, with a double episode finale and a reunion episode on Wednesday 4th of June (clear your schedules!). There are three Wednesdays before then though, so I’m not really sure what’s going on.

One thing’s for sure, it’s not going to be wrapped up in a neat little bow after 10 eps. Things must get really spicy for the season to run longer than one and two. Big Kev voice: I’m excited!

I’m sure you noticed the lack of recaps these last two weeks, and for that I apologise. It turns out that running ExplorerFest, our very first outdoor adventure festival, was somewhat time-consuming. Check out what we got up to, we even had Rick J Petersen from Alone Australia Season 2 teach survival and have a fireside chat, and a surprise appearance from Karla from this very season.

Rick and Karla brought some cred to ExplorerFest | @claire__dalton

Alone Australia Season 3 spoilers below!

How are our predictions holding up?

A few months ago Amy let loose with predictions for every contestant. Bold stuff I know. So how are they holding up?

Muzza

Prediction: I reckon he has the potential to go far, but from the preview at the start, it looks like he cops a busted ankle. I reckon that’ll very sadly put him out of the running.
Reality: Well his ankle is definitely busted (from gout) but will it end his bid?

Matt

Prediction: Catching a bit of food will lift his spirits for a little while, but dwelling on how much he’s missing his family will be his undoing for suuuurrreee.
Reality: Amy called it! Matt missed his fam and went home.

Ceilidh

Prediction: I think she’ll stick it out for a few weeks, but get very hungry and a bit lonely. Being deaf won’t have anything to do with her tapping out; in fact the ability to turn her cochlear implant off could work to her advantage.
Reality: Medically removed after a UTI that couldn’t be treated, nothing to do with being deaf!

Ben

Prediction: It’s hard to get a read on Ben’s abilities, but I actually think his faith will get him through some darker days.
Reality: I reckon Ben lasted longer than expected thanks to faith and guts. Takes a lot of belief to get that skinny.

Karla

Prediction: Karla is a strong player in the game, and maybe the lack of air time now means she’s got plenty more to come. But as a Queenslander, will the Tassie winter get to her?
Reality: Not too cold, not too hungry, just lonely! We didn’t see this one coming at all.

Yonke

Prediction: Yonke is going to make a comfy home for herself in the bush and will really settle in. But she’ll ultimately tap out when she feels it in her soul and a tree whispers ‘It’s time to go now’ in her ear.
Reality: Yonke got the shits with the cameras and tapped out. I was honestly surprised she didn’t try to blame the forest like Amy predicted.

Shay

Prediction: If Shay goes any extended length of time without sufficient food, he’s outta here. He’s got plenty of tricks up his sleeve but ultimately will run into some bad luck. Is he the person in the preview who gets super skinny and needs a medical check?
Reality: He defs doesn’t seem that lucky, but he’s damn persistent and I think Ben was the one that got too hungry. More thoughts on Shay later in the piece.

Tom

Prediction: One less hand isn’t slowing him down, but combine it with a bit of delirium, exhaustion, and frustration, and that hook and knife combo could be the recipe for a bad accident.
Reality: No accident yet, but his bad hand is looking frostbitten, it potentially doesn’t have very good bloodflow. One to watch.

Eva

Prediction: I think Eva’s got the skills but not the hard-earned years of bush life under her belt. I think she’ll make some nifty stuff, but I don’t think she’ll endure.
Reality: Pretty much exactly that, Eva was solid but packed it in when it got really tough.

Corinne

Prediction: Corinne won’t be able to feed herself enough protein and will be gone within a few weeks.
Reality: EHHH *Buzzer noise* wrong. But honestly a fair prediction. Corinne has been a big surprise with the largest catch of the season, but if she doesn’t get another one soon she’ll be packing her rucksack.

Read more: Our Alone Australia Season 3 Predictions From Eps 1 & 2

A Quick Recap

The events of the last two episodes, numbers seven and eight, were a seismic shift for me. Having just gone through all of Amy’s Alone Australia Season 3 predictions and how they held up, let’s take a look at the big changes (including losing one front runner!) and who’s still in it to win it.

Ben is Medically Tapped

First, we saw Ben removed from the show due to incredibly rapid weight loss and, ultimately, low blood pressure.

Ben isn’t particularly chunky in the first few episodes, but by 40 days in, he looks like Christian Bale in The Machinist. He’s emaciated, stumbling, freezing under his layers of socks. The writing couldn’t have been more on the wall. The fact that losing 17% of his bodyweight turned him into Skeletor means his days were always numbered without significant protein.

Everyone has a little hamstring pocket right guys? Guys?

Krzysztof Wojtkowski won last season after 64 days without a single bit of meat, so I reckon we can blame Ben’s rapid metabolism as an AFL player for this one.

But did it have to be 40 days? Just like Jesus in the desert? Can’t imagine his Church mates are going to hear the end of that one. Two eels, two fish, zero loaves of bread. Thanks for playing Ben.

Karla Gets Lonely

Turns out there’s alone, and then there’s Alone. And the epiphany Karla’s had after 35 days of not-dinners by not-candlelight, is that this kind is a bit crap.

Honestly, I couldn’t agree more. A week with myself would render me clinically insane, let alone a month while fighting challenges with no validation or feedback (head pats are also acceptable).

Real neat place to evaluate your life choices

I’m sure Karla would have loved $250,000. But sometimes I think what participants learn about themselves is more valuable. There’s no way she’s about to hang up the adventure boots, but it sounds like she’s ready to share it with someone, which is pretty special.

I don’t reckon that’s the last we’ve seen of Karla, but for now, she’s off.

Were their shelters at risk of flood?

Both Karla and Ben had shelters near the water. Some shots made Karla’s look quite close (though I think there’s a bit of elevation) while Ben’s waterfront abode was majorly at risk.

Yeah so Ben probably wouldn’t have survived the flood

The ‘flood’ is gone from the intros now, but one choice shot of a flooded shelter teased early on in the season tells us that someone’s home goes under, and it can’t be either of the two that were on my list, Karla or Ben.

Which brings me to the predictions.

Read more: Alone Australia Season 3 – Everything You Need to Know

Tom Cops Noah’s Flood

Ben will be spewing that he missed it, but the biblical drenching that seems to be coming the contestant’s way looks to be near.

I loved meeting Tom properly in the last few episodes. He has a Costa vibe and I reckon he’d crush it with his own show about bugs and stuff.

But it’s strange that an ecologist who knows the land as well as he does, set up in a creek line. The mud we’ve seen already infiltrating most of his shelter is a problem, and that’s been caused by 240mm of rain in a month.

This might be the driest Tom’s shelter looks for the next few weeks

Living in Sydney the last few years has meant that I’ve become very aware of how much rain 240mm is, and honestly, over a month that’s not too crazy, about average for the 2000mm-a-year Western Ranges. It’s entirely possible that Tom gets 100mm in a day, whilst sitting on sodden ground, and his stuff simply washes away.

I really like him, and it’s awesome to see someone living with a disability in the final four, but I’m not confident.

Music festivals might actually be good Alone training

Muzza On The Rocks

Literally. I think the last time we saw him, he was sitting on the shore watching the medical team come his way, and he wasn’t too happy about it.

Gout! I’d have put the disease into the same category as scurvy (wait, do they have to worry about scurvy?) until recently, when a few friends had issues with it. Essentially, it’s a type of super painful arthritis from uric acid build up, and it particularly affects overweight men who eat too much meat.

So, Muzza, haha. The man has caught 8 fish and 11 eels. He hasn’t even gone hungry a day until recently, but now gout has reared its ugly head in his ankle.

A major blow for fish lord

Look, it’s not broken, and Google tells me it can resolve in two weeks if left untreated (three days if treated). I assume that’s not the estimate for someone surviving alone in the bush though.

I think it comes down to whether the doctors will let him stay. It’s not technically life-threatening as far as I’m aware, but how safe is it living in the bush, unable to walk? How would he cope with a flood or a quoll attack?

Muzza’s my favourite, and the most successful contestant, but I think he’s heading home on that boat.

Read more: 8 Things We Learned From Alone Australia’s Bushcraft Survival Day

Corinne

Our favourite Glaswegian is glowing. She actually looks so healthy and seems to have ample time for filming thirst traps in the sun and lakes of Tasmania.

But I’m concerned. A quoll has stolen up to half of her jerky and we haven’t seen any other evidence of food coming in. Despite the great thinking that went into her trapping of the first pademelon, I haven’t seen evidence of another attempt – I actually wonder if she even wants to?

Shop the lewk!

That and she’s talking about being lonely, and we’ve got some backstory from the highlands. Hmm.

Corinne has been a wildcard from the beginning, and that’s not changing. I think she’ll outlast Tom and Muzza, but I’m not sure her heart is in it quite like Shay. I don’t think she’s in trouble, but once those supplies run low, things could change quickly. Just take a look at that pic above, she hungry.

Shay

I’m not sure if it’s the talk of 300 days from Shay, the gnarly penta-spear he’s pegging at fish, or the fact that I think he probably needs the money the most, but Shay is my pick for Season 3.

He’s tough, he’s stabbing fish, he’s just proven that he can make a gill net, and the local marsupials are on notice.

Shay calls this his ‘EFTPOS card’ – yeah that’ll get you stuff for free in the city too man

Shay comes across as a bit down on his luck, but how much of that is the edit to throw us off? I don’t reckon he thinks he’s anywhere near the finish line, he’s in good health, and I think his shelter will be ok in a storm.

I reckon he’ll outlast Corinne with pure grit, and then totally not believe he’s won when they come to pick him up.

What do you reckon?

While I hope that’s what happens, I’d actually be stoked if any of these final four won. Given that we’ve got four episodes left (at least, could be five?) there’s probably heaps more that could happen. My Alone Australia Season 3 predictions might be dead wrong!

From what I’ve seen in previous seasons, it really gets tough after two months, where fat stores can no longer sustain you and you simply have to know what you’re doing. And have a boatload of luck.

What’s more, the reunion episode will tuck into 6000 hours of footage, shelters, gadgets, wildlife, and the return to the real world. I can’t wait!

Got your own Alone Australia Season 3 predictions? Something that I missed? Drop it below in the comments.

Scottish moment, it’s probably below 10 in this pic